2012年4月29日日曜日

3-17 The third industrial revolution





Demography
China’s Achilles heel
A comparison with America reveals a deep flaw in China’s model of growth

Why I picked up the article:
This article got over 880 comments on its website. Articles on China usually get certain number of comments not only because of its population but also that aging China is Asia’s next big concern.

Discussion:
What is the difference between China’s demographic concern and Japan’s one?
Do economies heavily depend on demography? (Will America posses its position?)

Summary:
China will overtake America as the world’s largest economy (at purchasing-power parity) in 2017. But China has its deadly point of unseen weakness: demography.
①.     Total fertility rate: 2.6(1980)=>1.56(2010) *Shanghi 0.6(2010) =>1.51(2020) óAmerica 2.08(2010) and rising
②.     Population: 1.34billion(2010)=>peak(2026)=>under 1.3(2050)=>below 1 billion(2060) óAmerica rise by 30% in the next 40 years
③.     Average ages(median): 22(1980)=>34.5(2010)=>49(2050) ó America 37(2010)=>40(2050)

China will grow old before it gets rich. China will have a bulge of pensioners before it has developed the means of looking after them
“4-2-1 phenomenon”=each 1 child is responsible for 2 parents and 4 grand parents
A national pension problem =unfunded pension liability is roughly 150% of GDP

By 2030 China will be importing workers from outside, rather than exporting them.
①.     China’s workforce: 72%(2010)=>61%(2050) of its population
②.     Old-age dependency ratio: 11(2010)=>42(2050) ó America 20
China needs large-scale immigration but has problems. Unlike America, China isn’t an open, multi-ethnic society with long history of immigration and strong legal and political institution (the absence of predictable institution).

Developed countries have same kind of problem and China has certain advantages, low tax rate and low public expectation of welfare. But still China is unique in 2 respects: poorer aging country and more rapid demographic transition.

2012年4月22日日曜日

登山



気づいたときに時々山に登りにいく。登山とはいっても本格的なことはほとんどなくて、大抵が日帰りである。一人で行くことは滅多になくて大抵仲間を誘って行く。寒い冬を越えて暖かくなる4月に入ると行きたくてしょうがない。都会の喧噪を逃れて、自然に囲まれた環境におかれて、天気もよいとそれは至福の一時である。山頂で食べるカップヌードルと一杯のコーヒーはそれはとても美味しいものだ。

2012年4月15日日曜日

3-15 China's military rise



By-elections in Myanmar
The Lady of all landslides
Aung San Suu Kyi’s win is a humiliation for the army. Will it now turn nasty?


Background:
Aung San Suu Kyi and her NLD won the election on April 1st. But the way to democracy still continue.
the National League for Democracy (NLD)
the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP)

Discussion:
What is the next step to democracy of Myanmar? What are possible subjects?

2007 Aug-Sep: anti-government protest by monks (Kenji Nagai was killed by a shot)
2007 Oct: Tien Sein Prime Minister (~2011 March)
2010 election: USDP won most of the seats NLD boycotted the poll
2011 Nov: general election Tien Sein President
2015: general election

Ref. Roadmap to Democracy
1.        To reassemble the National Convention(国民議会), which had been suspended since 1996.
2.        To implement step by step the requisite tasks for the founding of a democratic system when the National Convention has been successfully concluded.
3.        To draw up a draft constitution(憲法草案) based on the general concepts and detailed principles advocated by the National Convention.
4.        To hold a national referendum(国民投票) in order to endorse the draft constitution. (2008 May)
5.        To hold free and fair elections for the formation of the required national legislative bodies (Hluttaw). (2010 Nov)
6.        To convene the meeting of elected representative to the Hluttaw.
7.        The leaders, government and authoritative bodies elected by the Hluttaw to continue with the task of constructing a new democratic state. (2011~Now)

2012年4月8日日曜日

2012年4月1日日曜日

3-13 How India is losing its magic

Oil reserves
Don’t roll out the barrels
America’s strategic stockpile of oil should be held back for a genuine emergency


Discussion point:
Should government control the price of oil by resorting stocked oil or not?

The Economist suggestion:
Barak Obama should resist resorting oil from strategic stockpile, SPR. The strategic reserve should be kept for a real emergency, not squandered for reasons of political expediency.
*SPR = Strategic Petroleum Reserve that holds 700m barrels of oil in vast underground caverns strung along the Gulf of Mexico, set up in 1975 after a succession of oil crises.

Backgrounds:
Mr. Obama is plainly tempted to release oil from SPR
  1. Soaring price of Brent crude and petrol that hits lives of people
  2.  The approaching US election that bothers Mr. Obama
  3. David Cameron’s support for the decision of Obama

However, the purpose of the SPR is to dampen the effects of catastrophic supply shocks, not to ease a president’s political difficulties.
  1.  Gulf war, Hurricane Katrina, no such shock has happened this time.
  2. Only 15% more expensive oil than at the start of the year.
  3. Saudi Arabia’s promise to ensure that the world has adequate supplies.


Add to this, he should resist for two reasons:
  1. He risks draining reserves while there is a threat that Iran may try to shut the Strait of Hormuz that is exactly the sort of emergency.
  2.  The effort is likely to be ineffective, as the Libyan episode illustrates.