2011年10月30日日曜日

ブラック・スワン

 最近公開され話題になった映画「ブラック・スワン」は、ナタリー・ポートマン演じる無垢なバレリーナが、「白鳥の湖」のプリマに抜擢されたプレッシャーや人間関係に悩み、徐々に精神を壊していくスリリングな展開が衝撃的だったが、一般的な経済学理論を真っ向から否定するタレブの「ブラック・スワン」も映画に勝るとも劣らないスリリングな主張である。




 タレブの「ブラック・スワン」は、「理論」という言葉ではくくることのできない、思想であり哲学であり、世界を捉えるひとつの見方(認識論)である。それはきわめてシンプルなものだ。タレブの主張は、私達は統計的に有意「ではない」事象、つまり「まぐれ」のような滅多に起こらない事象を過小評価しすぎる、というもの。人間は、世界が何らかの構造を持ち、いつも通りで,理解可能なものだと見なす傾向がある。故に、滅多におこらない事象が起こった場合の影響は計り知れないものとなる。彼のこの主張が脚光を浴びたのは2007年からの世界金融危機においてであることは周知の通りだが、彼がしつこく批判するのは「ベル型カーブ」(正規分布)の世界認識であり、世界はより「ランダム性」「予測不可能性」「非線形性」であふれていると主張する。

 タレブの主張は古くて新しいものだ。古代ギリシャの哲学者ソクラテスは、それを「無知の知」という言葉で表現した。人間はこの言葉を知っているにもかかわらず、いつの時代もハッと胸に突き刺さるのは、私達がいかに無知であるかを忘れてしまうかの証左である。人間は、年を重ねるに従って知識と経験を身につけ、あたかも自分達は世界をよく理解しているという錯覚に陥りがちだ。しかし、世界は私達の理解とは無関係に存在するものであり、本来的に測りしえないものだ。このことを再び痛感したのが、2011年未曾有の被害をもたらした東日本大震災であり、絶対安全と言われていた福島の原発事故である。私達は既知の知識や経験を過信し、傲り高ぶってはいなかっただろうかと感じざるを得ない。

 私達はタレブの主張から何を学ぶべきか。映画の「ブラック・スワン」では、主人公が現実とも幻覚とも分からない未知の状況へ追い込まれていく展開が観客を震え上がらせた。いつまた未知の事象に遭遇するか分からない状況は映画の世界に限らず、私達の生きる世界も同じである。さらに言えば、映画のような2時間で終幕という制限時間すらないのが現実の世界である。それは恐怖ではあるが、それが私達の生きる世界なのであり、そうした無作為な世界のあり方を謙虚に受け止める態度が最低限求められる態度である。その上で、奇しくも彼自身が著作のベストセラーから一躍有名となったように、予測不可能な結果から幸運をつかみ取る姿勢、これもまた彼の主張から私達が学びとりたい姿勢である。

2011年10月23日日曜日

#2-11 Nowhere to hide [Oct 15th, 2011]


Nowhere to hide [Oct 15th, 2011]
Oct 23rd 2011 10:00-12:00 Ichigaya Renoir My space
Ono, Ogawa, Tomozawa, Saito, Kurasawa, Sotani, Miyabe and Yamazaki




Articles we discussed
[Leaders][Solar Power] Thou orb aloft full-dazzling
[Asia] Branding Japan as “cool” No limits, no laws
[International][Tax havens] Trouble Island
[Finance and Economics][Economic Focus] Realism rewarded
[Science and technology] Transporter of delight


We reserved a meeting room at Renoir for the first time. Members of the group increases so we are anxious about securing seats and comfortable environment for discussion. Renoir have meeting rooms around Tokyo so last week Ono, Ogawa and Yamagata decided to use a meeting room in Ichigaya for the study group. We had new comers this week. Miyabe, who is a friend of Tomozawa, working in a consulting firm and Yamazaki, who is a colleague of Ogawa came to join.

 We started from a solar power article Saito chose to discuss. The article insists two things. One is that solar power is now taking off and the other is that solar subsidies are wasteful. Tomozawa specialized in solar power inhis graduate school and Sotani is now struggling with renewable energy on her job so they leaded the discussion with various new ideas and information.

Second article we picked up was about “Cool Japan”. They introduce a striking picture of girls who are walking on Takeshita Street wearing strange colorful fashion, attached with words ”where Toyota failed...” I think this article is ironical because even though the headline “beautiful people join hands with bureaucrats” has a positive meaning, they don’t think the girls looks beautiful. The article introduce Japan’sThe Cool Japan Promotion Strategy Programme” promoted by METI. The whole context is favorable but as the title “No limits, no laws” suggests, they are doubtful of the strategy of bureaucrats who usually make regulations and rules.

Let’s follow remaining articles. Ogawa chose the third article about tax haven. “Haven” is different from “heaven”. But both meanings can be understood when we consider tax haven so we often take haven to heaven by mistake. Firstly we got ideas of the havens in shape. Then we made a brief debate about whether we should accept existence of tax havens or not. What would you say if you are “No” to tax havens? Debate was experimental but it was fan.

Ono picked up a column about two Novel Prize winners latest studies. He made a lecture of the winning and answered our question why they got prizes. He used a white board for the lecture. It was also new for us.

During his lecture the time was up because we had two hours reservation of the room but we still had one article from science and technology section. Kurasawa picked up “Transporter of delights”, which is about the genetics of happiness. She chose the article because we had discussed Brazilian optimistic attitude based on the article of Brazil economy. We moved to have a lunch and during the lunch we continued to discuss the topic. Most of us have curiosities and eager to learn new things.  


2011年10月16日日曜日

#2-10 The magician [Oct 8th, 2011]


The magician [Oct 8th, 2011]
Oct 16th 2011 10:00-12:00 Osaki Saint Marc Cafe
Ogawa, Ono, Iino, Tomozawa, Yamagata, Shimada, Saito, Kurasawa, Oshida and Nakamuea



Articles we discussed:
[Leaders] The magician
[Leaders][Echoes of 2008] Here we go again
[Leaders][Hope in Myanmar] A Burmese spring
[US][Free trade and the yuan] One step forward, one back
[Asia][Radiation in Japan] Hot spots and blind spots
[Finance and Economics] [Shorting China] Panda bears
[Science and technology] [Stem cells] The nuclear option

    This week we gathered at Osaki because Ogawa and Iino joined another The Economist readers group held in Osaki. It holds meetings from 8 a.m. on every Sunday. Goto-san introduced the group to us so we woke up a little early and joined them for the first time. The discussion was held only in English and the members were diverse. I will write about the experience on a next opportunity but it was so impressive and simulative experience for us and we got several ideas to improve our study group. In the earlier group, I met Oshida-san, who works at a governmental financial organization. We know each other because he held a study group a year ago and I joined it. Oshida-san came to join our group either as an observer. Nakamura-san, he was another observer, came to join us for the first time.

    We followed 7 articles this week. 7 articles are too much to discuss only in 2 hours. We should rethink how to manage our discussion when we have so many articles. The cover of this week was a photo of Steve Jobs, who died at the age of 56, presenting his new products at a conference. The impressive cover title was “The magician” from which we start our discussion. Tomozawa picked up it and made a brief presentation in English. He presented us his two discussion points: Where the strength of Jobs? (Why he was born in US?) And who are the next Jobs? (How about the future of Apple?) He had an anxious feeling of the current situation of Japan. Innovative people seem to be born in US not in Japan but why? We discussed the difference of Jobs and US from others and we shared several reasons. But I thought this reasoning was a trivial because a lot of possible reasons we can think of but none of them were certain. The only thing we could agree is that he was the magician and attracts the people in all over the world.

    Three articles on world economy were chosen this week. Ono picked up the first article, “Echoes of 2008”, which we already discussed the same kind of topics last several weeks. We followed up the current situation and discussed whether ECB lend to EFSF or not and what would be the problems they face when they decide to do it. Yamagata chose “One step forward, one back” from US section, which focused on a free trade principle and a trade relationship between US and China. His points at issue were the importance of economic partnership comparing to monetary policy and protectionism in US. He also pointed out a fact that The Economist didn’t take up discussions of TPP. Third article “Shorting China” was from Shimada. He said he would like to discuss the influence of fiscal crisis in developed economies on emerging economies including China. He pointed out a short selling on China is accelerated on the current situation.

    Other three members chose more diverse issues. Kurasawa picked up the case of Iidate, which is located 45km north from Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear plant. The article introduces that contaminated soil and trees in Iidate affects them for a long time. Kurasawa asked us what we do think of pulling up the standard of safe exposure. Ogawa picked up the article of Myanmar. Myanmar is changing their politics dramatically for the first time in decades. Ogawa insisted that even if the country had a potential of business and economical development, we should be in mind of their attitude toward human rights. Iino chose “stem cells” from Science and technology section. He is working at Bio department in his ministry so he is interested in the topic. We got to know the difference between cloning, ES cells and iPS cells from his explanation.

    At first we were going to gather Renoir in Osaki but we couldn’t find it so we changed café to Saint Marc Café. 10 people gathered and most of them had their articles so it is difficult to discuss all of these articles in a short period of time. At previous group, we discovered several ideas to manage meetings in which over 10 people join. We have to make improvements in our group introducing their ideas.

2011年10月9日日曜日

Big society, not big government


中長期的に私達が取り組むべきissuesを取り上げるのはどうだろうか?


私たちの集まりを次のステップへと進めていくには、どんなことをしたら良いだろうか? 英国の政治家の話が参考になった。マーガレット・サッチャーは「小さな政府」構想を実現するため、自身が政権を担うずっと前より「小さな政府」に関する勉強会を続けていたそうだ。それが、彼女が首相として政策を矢継ぎ早に実現していくときに大変役に立っている。何事も大きなことを実現するためには、それなりの準備と時間がかかることを肝に銘じておくべきだ。今回は、一つのアイデアを提示したい。




(1)中長期的に私達が取り組むべきissuesを取り上げるのはどうだろうか?


理由
1)The Economistが取り上げる話題は単発的ではなく、時間をかけていくつかの話題を追っている姿勢が感じられるため、各々の記事を関連させて読み進めるべきである。


2)私達の勉強会でも、過去に取り上げたことのある話題が何度もディスカッション・トピックとして登場しており、一度整理してみたい。


3)今私達が取り組むべきは、世相を捕まえ世間の流行を追うことではなく、世界経済を低迷させ社会の安定を揺るがす構造的課題、中長期的に時間をかけて取り組むべき課題と向き合うことである。


4)私達が取り組むべき課題は、同世代に共通しており、産業横断的であり、かつ官民を問わない。勉強会の参加者は、高いモチベーションを持った20代を中心に、産業や官民を問わず集まっており、勉強会の趣旨からしてもこうした課題を取り上げるのにふさわしい場である。


(2)いかなるissueを取り上げるべきか?

「財政再建」=「人口減少社会の克服」
「経済成長」=「新産業、リーディング・カンパニーの育成」

「財政再建と経済成長の両立」→「大きな社会(the Big Society)の実現」

ソブリン・リスクが世界を震撼させている。財政の健全化は、今や先進国共通の課題となった。欧州はギリシャのデフォルト危機をはじめとする国家債務問題が共通通貨ユーロの行く末を暗くしている。米国債も同じくデフォルト寸前まで陥り格下げとなった。日本は世界第1位の国家債務残高を抱え、ますます進む高齢化と社会保障費の増大、動かない政治とリーダーシップの不在が先行きを不透明にしている。


抜本的なリストラクチャリングをもってしなければ、ソブリン・リスクはいつまでたっても私たちの生活を脅かし続ける。その目標や方策は各国によってそれぞれ異なるが、単なる数合わせの議論に終始するのではなく、より本質的な議論をすることが求められている。グローバル化が進展し、国家を超えた主体がテロリストとして人々の生活を脅かし、一方でグローバル企業が地球規模での事業展開を加速させ人々の生活を豊かにする中で、国家の位置づけが改めて問い直されている。私たちは国家にいかなる役割を期待し、また期待しないのかを議論することこそ財政健全化の第一歩である。


財政再建という課題を背負った先進国が、同様に頭を悩ませているのが経済成長の実現である。人口が頭打ちとなり社会が成熟期を迎える中、いかにして新産業を育成し、次世代を牽引するリーディング・カンパニーを輩出するか。社会の新陳代謝を促して活気をもたらし、人々が健康で文化的な生活を送ることができるよう雇用を生むことが経済成長の主眼であろう。経済成長を実現し、明日の社会を形作っていくのは私たちの世代の責務である。


英国で2010年政権の座に就いたキャメロン首相率いる保守党の「大きな社会」構想は、上記の課題と向き合い、次の社会を見つめる上で参考になるだろう。

#2-9 Asia’s new model company [Oct 1st 2011]

Asia’s new model company [Oct 1st 2011]
Oct 9th 2011 10:00-12:00 Yebisu ANTICO CAFFE AL AVIS
Ogawa, Ono, Iino, Tomozawa, Yamagata, Shimada and Kurasawa



Articles we discussed:
[Leaders] [The world economy] Be afraid
[Leaders] [Vladimir Putin] The once and future president
[Economics & Finance][Economic Focus] Tinker, tailor
[International] [The changing adult business] At a XXX-roads
[Europe] [Charlemagne] Keep the fire burning
[Economics & Finance] [Tobin taxes and audit reforms] The blizzard from Brussel

We had a various kind of articles this week from Russia’s politics to an adult business. Two of us picked up the same article about Russia. Ono prepared his discussion paper based on his argument about growing industries and the role of government so his paper was favorably received. Yamagata made his discussion paper about EURO crisis handwritten. Iino bravely chose an article about adult business and he made a presentation in a loud voice in a refined Italian café. Shimada chose a column of EU. Impressive discussion we had this week.

Firstly we focused on the return of Vladimir Putin. As we all know, Mr. Putin is the leader of Russia even though he had resigned president once in 2008. Now he will win the election again. He told his United Russia party conference on September 24th that he would run for the presidency next march. We discussed mainly about the future of this “managed democratic” country. How will Russia change? What should Japan do? Kurasawa focused on their favor of dictatorship and controls on freedom of speech. She doesn’t think a dictator state can prosper for a long time and at some point they have to change their political system. There was a cold war in her mind when she mad her opinion. Tomosawa more focused on economic point of views. He was interested in the origin of power of Russia as a resourceful country, which he think is dictatorship.

Ono made his opinion based on the article from economic focus. He insists that not a public sector but a private sector pick growing industries and a public sector should more focus on deregulation than pick-the-winner policy. What matters is not whether governments can pick winners –they cannot- but whether they have the good sense to let losers fall by wayside. Fiscal reform and growing strategy both are the most important subjects we manage to do with. We should keep continue the discussion.

The article Iino picked up looks like he chose to make a joke but it was serious topic about adult business and IT. He was interested in it because an adult business is deeply rooted in human desire so it is one of the large industries so he wanted to know the circumstances. The article introduced us about “.xxx” domain. We mainly discussed influences of the domain on adult industry. The interesting point was that new types of technologies are also introduced and make developments in the industry.

Finally we follow the current situation of EURO crisis based on two articles; “The world economy: Be afraid” and “Keep the fire burning”. Many kinds of metaphors are used for the crisis. On these articles, these are a fire and a black hole. The economist always criticizes the absence of leadership among European leaders. What matters the most is to take a strong leadership to put out a fire by making consensus among people and countries.

We gathered at Yebisu for the first time. This town was refined and felt good when we sat on a table at a open café. We ate lunch in Udon restaurant near from the station. We talked about “Goucon” -parties with men and women. We concluded that to be friend with the opposite sex, activities such as golf, hiking and cycling are better than holding a drinking party.

2011年10月2日日曜日

#2-8 Hunting the rich [Sep 24th 2011]


Hunting the rich [Sep 24th 2011]
Oct 2nd 2011 10:00-12:00 Yoyogi Renoir
Ono, Ogawa, Tomozawa, Saito, Nagao, Yamagata, Shimada and



Articles we discussed:
[Leaders] Hunting the rich
[Leaders] Catching up is so very hard to do
[Special report] The game of catch up
[The Americas] [Protectionism in Brazil] A self-made siege
[Economics & Finance][Buttonwood] Pensions, Ponzis and Pyramids
[Leaders][Israel, Palestine and the United Nations] Yes to Palestinian statehood

    Almost a year has passed since I met Ono and Fujisaki in a restaurant in Marunouchi and decided to start reading the newspaper. The first discussion on October was held in Yoyogi, which is famous for Yoyogi cramming school. All the members of this week were male and most of them were strangers each other. Macro economical issues were the main topic of the discussion especially about catching up emerging economies. One article about Palestinian statehood Ogawa picked up raised a different type of discussion on this week.

    The article Ono picked up was “hunting the rich”. It mainly focuses on the hunt for more tax from the wealthy in developed countries. From this week, we changed the style of discussion according to Mr.Goto’s advice. So Ono first presented reasons for picking up the article and showed us his suggestion. He emphasized that it is a basic policy to make economic growth and fiscal reconstruction compatible with each other. He objected to the abolition of taxation on naphtha and the enlargement of base of taxation. We picked up “Buffett rule”: ensuring that no house hold making more than $1m a year pays a lower average tax rate than “middle-class ” families do. We cannot avoid discussing tax reconstruction when we really want to make fiscal reconstruction so we should more focus on this topic in the following discussions.

    “Catching up is very hard to do” and “The game of catch up” are both about the problems of emerging economies. Yamagata said the reason of choosing this article that was to summarize the problems of emerging countries. He also picked up “Middle-income country trap” (tricky middle-income stage of development). Saito asked us an influential map in 2031. Why these articles are interesting is that these are focusing on weakness of emerging economies. We tend to focus on strangeness of these because it is attractive. But there are two sides on things so the balance is important. Tomozawa picked up a related article from Americas section. “A self-made siege“ is focusing on protectionism in Brazil. Brazil is popular as an object country of investment. Investment trusts for Brazil become so popular these days and the currency came to be strong. As investments for the country come to be hot, the government becomes cautious against a bubble. We also looked at rankings of trading and investment.

    Shimada picked up an interesting column, ”Pentions, Ponzis, and Pyramids ” from Bottomwood. This article looks upon Social Security as a Ponzi scheme or as a Pyramid scheme. Shimada asked us where this analogy was correct or not, especially in Japan’s case. He also focuses investment policies of pension-fund in western countries. The article criticizes that these funds invests not in emerging markets but only in their countries’ markets. Social Security system is related to tax issues as we saw at the first article. We should continue to discuss with it either.

    Lastly we followed today’s Israel and Palestine issue. Ogawa picked up the article to make clear the situation. We know there is an international issue on the region but we don’t know so much about who involves and how the problem is complicated. Following the core of international relationship we could understand foreign affairs better than before.

    This week we gathered at Renoir in Yoyogi. I don’t like the café so much because of smoke and old-fashioned interior but it is convenient to stay for a while to discuss or to study. Moreover they have meeting rooms with whiteboards in several café around Tokyo. We are thinking to use them next time.