ESG Season4 15th meeting
DATE: 9th Sep. 2012 10:00-12:00
PLACE: Kanda, Tokyo
MEMBERS: Ogawa, Murakami, Shimada
PLACE: Kanda, Tokyo
MEMBERS: Ogawa, Murakami, Shimada
The demographic transition
More or less
FROM Science and arts section
Why I chose the article:
What we Japanese need to understand is the demographic transition. As
we all know, Japan is facing demographical change: more old people, less
children.
Discussion topics:
Do you agree/disagree Dr Goodman’s argument?
Do you think K-type is unreasonable?
Do you think K-type is unreasonable?
Which choice do you plan to choose in near future?
Summary:
The demographic transition (as
people get richer, they have smaller families) is one of the most
significant phenomenon of modern history. Why does it happen? Anna Goodman of the
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine suggests what humans do is silly
and advanced explanation for the transition does not deliver the goods. Let us
check what she says.
Previous explanation: “r-selection” v.s. “K-selection”
The shift from r to K reproductive strategies explains the demographic
transition.
r-selected
|
K-selected
|
Produce lots of offspring
|
Have only a few offspring
|
Invest little in each of them
|
Nurture them so that they superb specimens and will do well in the
competition for resources and mates
|
Dr Goodman’s test of the Uppsala Birth Cohort group
in Sweden:
Following members of the cohort and their descendants, Dr Goodman shows
that K-selected members do not have any obvious evolutionary advantage.
Certainly, they have good marks in school, go university and get higher incomes
as adults, but they do not do well in the competition of reproduction. The
psychological make-up that encourages K-type behavior worked in the past but
does not work in the modern world.
The Economist’s comment:
This does seem reasonable.
(1) Better hygiene, nutrition and medicine have almost abolished child mortality.
(2) Education is available free to all.
(3) Harem-formation is disapproved in the modern world.
(1) Better hygiene, nutrition and medicine have almost abolished child mortality.
(2) Education is available free to all.
(3) Harem-formation is disapproved in the modern world.
The transition is the
result of mismatch of ancient psychology and the modern world.
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